At Rice U.s Baker Inst., we find the Shell Center for Sustainability. Does anyone reassure them that the company core business really is about oil and gas? Or look at computers: imagine an early adopter of an Apple computer saying everyone will use computers eventually! Yes, but not for another few decades, and in the long run, we are all dead. This seemingly small result led to a modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing. From Frock2006, Changing How the World Does Business: Fedexs Incredible Journey to Success, in 1973: On several occasions, we came within an inch of failure, because of dwindling financial resources, regulatory roadblocks, or unforeseen events like the Arab oil embargo. January 19, 2020. In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. For instance, in the old days, in order to tell where your head was so that you could position virtual content to be standing still relative to you, we used to have to use some kind of external reference point, which might be magnetic, ultrasonic, or optical. COWEN: Two last questions. We may not understand, we may not see, But we must trust, have faith, and believe. Let yourself Relax, sit and breathe mindfully, and try to block out any surrounding distractions. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. One was formation testing,9,10 the other production-log testing.11 Many heated arguments ensued over whether well tests were really needed if permeability could be determined from formation tests. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. In Schlumberger at that time, there were two alternative technologies competing with pressure-transient-test analysis using the derivative. 1. If the answer is no, then this is the team to back. My PhD adviser at Stanford was Professor Henry J. Ramey Jr., one of the all-time giants in reservoir engineering, and especially in well testing. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. They can stretch out to around 250 ms (1/4 second) or so, at which point reverberation takes over. Many startups have a long list of failed predecessors who tried to do much the same thing, often simultaneous with several other competitors (startups are just as susceptible to multiple discovery as science/technology in general3). While it is possible to understand that, under extreme pressure, Fred was acting to save Federal Express from almost certain bankruptcy, and even to empathize with what he did, it nevertheless appeared to be a serious breach of conductDecember1975 was also the month that settled the matter of the forged loan guarantee documents for the Union Bank. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? 2. I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. Once, Freds luck at the gaming tables of Las Vegas helped to save the company from financial disaster. There are some benefits and advantages associated or linked to having a day that is without the use of any technology. What is different? Privately, given the skewed returns, diminishing utility, the oversized negative impacts (a bad startup can ruin ones life and drive one to suicide), the limited number of startups any individual can engage in (yielding gamblers ruin)26, and the fact that startups & VC will capture only a minute percentage of the total gains from any success (most of which will turn into consumer surplus/positive externalities), the only startups that make any rational sense, which you wouldnt have to be crazy to try, are the overdetermined ones which anyone can see are a great idea. You cant foresee what will be successful based on what has been successful; you cant even foresee what wont be successful based on what was already unsuccessful; and you cant ask researchers because they are incentivized to not know the timing any better than anyone else. They describe Heinrich Hrleins drug development programs & Thomas Edisons electrical programs as being strategically aimed at opportunities called reverse salients, taking necessary steps to solve bottlenecks which hold back the practical application of progress in areas. Reflection gives meaning to experience; it turns experience into practice, links past and present experiences, and prepares the individual for future practice. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Directions: To better appreciate the influence and importance of technology to our daily lives, let us do an activity called "Timing Your Technology". Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. Where does this leave us? Its Moores law. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. Yes, but when I discovered it, it stayed discovered. Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. Most people have no idea that this is 35 years old. Bloomberg News. Great scientists have thought through, in a careful way, a number of important problems in their field, and they keep an eye on wondering how to attack them. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin wont make a search engine. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. (TML). For a recent timeline survey, see Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Gruetzemacher et al 2019, and for more, AI Impacts.org. If you are copying these guys, you arent learning from them.. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. Everything of importance has been said before by somebody who did not discover it. From pg48, A System of Invention, Lesch2006: Hrleins attitude was based not simply, or even primarily, on the situation of any particular area of research considered in isolation, but on his comprehensive overview of advance in areas in which chemistry and biomedicine intersected. The speed of light imposes theoretical bounds on rates of information transfer, so that it was once reasonable to wonder whether these limits, in conjunction with physical limits to microminiaturization of switching and conducting elements, might give the biological system an irreducible advantage. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. And so, we see, in our world around half such attempts fail completely, and 5% or so go to the moon. The researchers used qualitative research approach in this study with phenomenological research design. One thing that. In His perfect timing, all is planned We must have patience, hold His hand. multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. And then suddenly a catalyst took hold and the adoption skyrocketed. Learning can occur in many forms and situations. X Research source. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. Its a weird perspective to take, but we can think of other technologies which may be like this. Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. When minimum and maximum score are included in the same model, the coefficient on minimum score disappears. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. Jorge Luis Borges, Kafka And His Precursors (1951). Normal PSRL requires episodes, which dont really have a real-world equivalent, but PSRL can be extended to handle continuous actiona nice example is deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), which does back off in periodically stopping, and re-evaluating the optimal strategy based on accumulated evidence, but less & less often, so it does PSRL over increasingly large time windows.. For his attack on one of the most important reverse salientsthe chemotherapy of bacterial infectionsHrlein called upon the medical researcher Domagk and the chemists Mietzsch and Klarer. Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. Gamify self reflection by keeping a running streak using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks. ], Investing in Good Ideas That Look Like Bad Ideas, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western. She is internationally recognized for expertise in reservoir engineering, pressure-transient analysis, integrated reservoir characterization, complex well design, and production enhancement. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? These are tempting, but likely cant generate outsize returns because they are simply too obvious and invite too much competition that squeezes out the economic rents. For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. Below are some guiding questions . It sounds like Facebook! You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. The most demanding suppliers when it came to payments were the oil companies. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. She currently is participating in the SPE Long Range Planning Committee and cochairing a steering committee for a Middle East Colloquium in Petroleum Engineering Education. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. There is no right or wrong answer. 1. The energy business should ensure that the world has the affordable sustainable energy it needs without undue environmental impact. By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. The possibility of broadcasting radio waves across the Atlantic was convincingly excluded by theoretical analysis. Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. (DARPA indeed saw itself as much like a VC firm.). Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. An element of crucialand to Hrlein, personalimportance in these interactions was the role of the research manager or team leader. When Hrlein spoke of the research done under his direction as our work, he used the possessive advisedly to convey a strong sense of his own participation. Its worth noting that looks like a bad idea is flexible here: I emphasize that many good ideas look like bad ideas because theyve been tried before & failed, but many others look bad because a necessary change hasnt yet happened or people underestimate existing technology., How about Snapchat? The flowmeter did have a place in transient testing, though, but during drawdown, not buildup. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. 4.). Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. Reflection Paper About Technology Reflection Paper #1 It is 2017 and it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines. This year has caused financial services firms to rethink . When Marc and Ben first started Andreessen Horowitz, they described this founder leadership capability as egomaniacal. Their theorynotwithstanding the choice of wordswas that to make the decision to be a founder (a job fraught with likely failure), an individual needed to be so confident in her abilities to succeed that she would border on being so self-absorbed as to be truly egomaniacal. So, what Babbage should have aimed for is not making a practical thinking machine which could churn out naval tables, but demonstrating that a programmable thinking machine is possible & useful, and currently limited by the slowness & size of its mechanical logicso that transistors could be pursued with higher priority by governments, and programmable computers could be created with transistors as soon as possible, instead of the historical course of a meandering piecemeal development where Babbages work was forgotten & then repeatedly reinvented with delays (eg. Fedex, early on, couldnt make payroll and the founder famously kept the planes flying only by gambling the last of their money in Las Vegas, among other near-death experiences & crimesjust one of many startups doing highly questionable things.12 Both SpaceX & Tesla have come within days (or hours) of bankruptcy, in 2008 and 2013; in the former case, Musk borrowed money from friends to pay his rent after 3 rocket failures in a row, and in the latter, Musk reportedly went as far as securing a pledge from Google to buy Tesla outright rather than let it go bankrupt (Vance2015). But recent estimates [9, 10], which are summarized in Tables 7.1 and 7.2, indicate that this is not so, and that the balance of advantage in terms of sheer information-handling power may eventually like with the computer rather than the brain. In a Governing . At that time, my technical interest was in layered reservoir testing.12 In layered reservoir tests, the combination of pressure and flow rates measured at different levels in the well in response to changes in the surface flow rate permit characterization of commingled zones on a zone-by-zone basis. Timing and technology alone will not yield sustainable competitive advantage. Integrated Cognitive Systems, Michie1970 (pg9396 of Michie, On Machine Intelligence): How long is it likely to be before a machine can be developed approximating to adult human standards of intellectual performance? Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. Are we running out of oil and gas? Overall, the odds of success are low, and the rewards are not great for mostdespite the skewed distribution producing occasional eye-popping returns in a few cases, the risk-adjusted return of the technology sector or VC funds is not that much greater than the broader economy. . Theyd been known for decades. Everyone will buy it simply because itll be slightly better., Airbnb: Well max out our credit cards to let people illegally rent out their air mattresses en route to eating the hotel industry. Something happened that made the world different. Reflection Desktop is terminal emulation software. Organizing a Reflection Paper 1 Keep it short and sweet. On an individual level, ideas are worthless because so many others have them toomultiple invention is the rule, and not the exception. Start a hobby. This last fact is what is most significant. But enough time has passed since 1988 to enable us to judge the basic truthfulness of the predictions and expectations held by the dreamers such as Nicholas Negroponte: they were remarkably accurate! "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". How should we, in the upstream petroleum industry, react to claims that carbon dioxide emissions are causing climate change? In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. And, incidentally, offering an example of why stock markets are fine with paying executives so much: a good executive can createor destroythe entire company. IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). We may want things now, we may want them fast, But God knows best, our future is cast. The greater part of a century had to elapse before the vacuum tube arrived on the scene. Example: in retrospect, we know everyone wanted computers, OSes, social networksbut the history of them is strewn with flaming rubble. Tariq, Syed M., and Ramey, H.J. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? "They say, timing is everything. The question constantly asked of anyone who claims to know a better way (as futurologists implicitly do): If youre so smart, why arent you rich? The lesson I draw is: it is not enough to predict the future, one has to get the timing right to not be ruined, and then execute, and then get lucky in a myriad ways. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. Our respected leader admitted his culpability to the Federal Express board of directors and to the investors and lenders we were counting on to support the second round of the private placement financing. 3). For example, researchers have shown that time of day explains about 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks. All those huge initiatives and? In what I would call, in a nod to Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, definitely-maybe optimism. The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. Advances in technology have brought us online banking, smart cars, smart TVs, lightning fast computers, and the latest buzz: virtual reality. Even the women and children of the common people know that the unicorn is a favorable portent. Rather, this is how the process of invention and creation works. The poem Fears and Scruples by Robert Browning prophesies the work of Kafka, but our reading of Kafka noticeably refines and diverts our reading of the poem. And even when there are stocks available to buy, you only benefit based on the specificslike one of the existing stocks being a winner, rather than all the stocks being eaten by some new startup. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. Want to read all 2 pages? Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. I think we see this a lot. Format and timing Fails to meet minimum page requirements Submitted late : Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement. and simple to express: Stehfest, H.: Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms,, Wagner, P.B., Economides, M.J., and Ehlig-Economides, C.A. Clearly doomed to failure when they refused Facebooks $3.9$3.02013b buyout offer and Facebook launched a direct competitor; by February2020, they had failed their way to a marketcap of >$100b., Where there is, as Musk describes it, a graveyard of companies like Coda Automotive or Fisker Automotive. Modern genomics strikes me as a bit like this. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. Sensors, displays batteries! Through it all, he had to take a long view of the value of research, not insisting on immediate results of medical or commercial value. Yet they all seemed to be independently aiming for the same archetypal design. Online safety, security, ethics, and etiquette. Perhaps had Kelleher known intimately of all the challenges of entering the airline business, he would have run screaming from the challenge versus deciding to take on the full set of risks. The origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy; eg. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. quick and timely) and also ecologically valid (i.e. In the case of chemotherapy, these things could be effected only by the medical researcher and the chemist, each working on his own domain, and cooperatively. Sunday Reflection: The Blessing of God's Timing. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. I was actually reading some earlier papers. This technological advancement is believed to be able to address the knowledge gap in neurophysiology and neurological disorder. 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